[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT. THE WAVE HAS ACQUIRED A NW/SE TILT.  CONVECTION IS ACTIVE
W AND S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 17N MOVING W 10
KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED...NOTED BY
SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING FROM 12N-17N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 40W-42W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
KT.  THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE NELY TRADE WIND FLOW AND
THUS HAS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE. HOWEVER...A WEAK CIRCULATION
IN NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG WITH A PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 62W S OF
20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF
DEEP WESTERLY AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC
WHICH IS MAKING ITS SIGNATURE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS NEAR TRINIDAD AND CONTINUES NWD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FEEDING INTO LOW PRES N OF HISPANIOLA SO IT
IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND A CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS MAINLY N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 59W-63W AND MERGES WITH OTHER CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N20W 10N30W 10N55W 13N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
13W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY LIGHT NE
FLOW.  CONVECTION THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS
DISSIPATED.  A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W MOVING
S.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
TO BE HIGHEST OVER NE MEXICO...AND OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
1005 MB LOW IS W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N75W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS W TO HONDURAS ALONG 16N80W 16N88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  CONTINUED MOIST
SW SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM NICARAGUA TO
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ENHANCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N69W IS ENHANCING THE SAME CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1005 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS E TO 25N64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  THIS CONVECTION IS
ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE W ATLANTIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N34W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-55W.  IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
19N47W PUTTING A DAMPER ON TROPICAL ACTIVITY FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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