[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY TWO AT 09/0600 UTC
IS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29.5N 64W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. IT IS AN INDEPENDENT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT IS AN AREA
OF LARGER-SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
A MEAN CENTER NEAR 25N62W. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR MORE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N62W
LOW CENTER AND THE OTHER WIND REGIMES AROUND THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
HAVE CREATED AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AND INCREASED
IMMENSELY THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING OR FORMING NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
VENEZUELA. ANYONE DOING ANY BOATING IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE
WARNED ABOUT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH ALREADY
HAS DEVELOPED AND WHICH MAY DEVELOP MORE AS THE DAY GOES ON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN THE
BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO ARE SEEN FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W
AND 60W JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF DUST...AT LEAST AS SEEN IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE DAYTIME YESTERDAY. ITCZ SHOWERS DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THIS WAVE.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13.5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 20N ALONG
77W/78W...MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND THIS WAVE IS NOT RELATED TO THE 77W/78W WAVE.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 8N30W 8N45W 12N50W...14N54W 15N60W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 2N TO 12N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY
AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA. IT IS ALONG THE LINE NOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N82W. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N92W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 17N92W
NORTHWESTWARD TO 23N102W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PUSHED EASTWARD AND NOW IS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 32N76W...TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W...
18N90W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO NOW FINDS ITSELF RIGHT
ON TOP OF LOUISIANA WITH ITS LOW CENTER IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
IT IS SWEEPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERING THE WATERS
FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ANYONE
WHO IS DOING ANY BOATING ACTIVITY OR FLYING THROUGH THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WARNED TO EXPECT NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE MORNING. ALL THIS
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER NEAR 25N62W. THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW
CENTER ARE BEING FELT IN THE FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST WEST OF THE
25N62W LOW CENTER...IN BETWEEN THE 25N62W LOW AND THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/
FLORIDA SURFACE COLD FRONT. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE UNDER THIS RIDGE...NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NOT COUNTING THE PART FOR
THE SPECIAL FEATURE OF THE 25N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER...
A BIG RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE
DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NORTHWARD BEYOND
30N20W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 33N20W. A SURFACE 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N20W...WITH A TROUGH RUNNING FROM IT
TO 20N25W...TO 14N27W JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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