[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY WAS WRITTEN ABOUT SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY TWO AT 09/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY TWO IS NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300 UTC MOVING
WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEPRESSION
NUMBER TWENTY TWO NO LONGER HAS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO
ITS LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. REGENERATION APPEARS
UNLIKELY BECAUSE THE FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THAT THE SHEAR WILL
STOP. ALL THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OF 24 HOURS AGO WHEN A FEW SMALLER CYCLONIC
CENTERS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW.
ONE MEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N61W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN
57W AND 73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 73W THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 25N61W LOW CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N73W 16N70W
17N67W. OTHER MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 72W. THE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.5N TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W ALSO ARE IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
THE 25N61W LOW CENTER AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH WHICH
SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF DUST...AT LEAST AS SEEN
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE DAYTIME YESTERDAY. ITCZ SHOWERS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THIS WAVE.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13.5N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 20N ALONG
76W/77W...JUST APPROACHING EASTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS WAVE IS NOT RELATED TO THE
76W/77W WAVE.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N18W 8N24W...8N26W 8N35W...7N38W 7N42W 13N49W...
14N53W 15N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 2N TO 11N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY
AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS ALONG THE LINE NOW FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
EASTWARD AND NOW IS IN THE A BIT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
WEST OF 32N76W 25N79W 18N89W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
THROUGH AT LEAST LOUISIANA. THE LOW ITSELF HAS MOVED NORTHWARD
AND NOW IS IN THE AREA OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
CURRENTLY IS NEAR OKLAHOMA...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 25N61W LOW
CENTER. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST WEST OF THE
25N61W LOW CENTER...IN BETWEEN THE 25N61W LOW AND THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/
FLORIDA SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER
THIS RIDGE...NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NOT COUNTING THE PART FOR THE
SPECIAL FEATURE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY TWO...
A BIG RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE
DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NORTHWARD
BEYOND 30N20W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 33N20W. A SURFACE 1005 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N19W...WITH A TROUGH RUNNING FROM
IT TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EVENTUALLY TO 22N28W.

$$
MT


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