[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N58W...ABOUT
560 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING NORTHWEST
5 TO 10 KT. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE NEAR 26N57W.
THESE TWO LOWS ARE PART OF A BROADER AREA OF DEEP LAYER LOW
PRESSURE FROM 10N TO 35N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N
TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE CELLS NOW ARE SEEN A BIT TO THE WEST FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 63W AND 64W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THIS TROUGH. AD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ
ARE FOUND FROM TO 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
28N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W MOST PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SURROUNDING THE 26N58W SURFACE
LOW CENTER AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 26N57W 14N59W TROUGH.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE NOW FINDS ITSELF IN MORE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM 17N77W TO 24N76W BEYOND 32N76W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 7N20W 8N30W 7N40W 10N47W 12N53W 15N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM
2N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A CURVED BAND WITHIN
20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N18W 7N20W 10N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH 30.5N83W
TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF 1003 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 25N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N95W...
AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 21N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES
TO 26N101W AND 28N106W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH CURRENTLY IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD EAST TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N
TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W COVERING SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WERE COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED OVER
LAND AND HAVE RE-FORMED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
PLAINS FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO THE COASTAL WATERS JUST
OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTH OF MEXICO. CENTRAL AMERICA FINDS ITSELF
AT THE TAIL END OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
LOW CENTER NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND
IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WITH THE 17N77W 32N76W RIDGE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W. THIS FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH RUNS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 10N TO 34N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NOT COUNTING THE PART FOR
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 26N58W...
A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N20W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 25N24W TO 19N28W 15N30W.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPIRALING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 14W AND 24W.

$$
MT


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