[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N58W...ABOUT
600 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING NORTHWEST
5 TO 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W
IN AN AREA OF PROBABLY AT LEAST ONE OTHER SMALLER-SIZED CYCLONIC
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A TROUGH WHICH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 14N57W. THIS DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER IS FOUND IN A BIGGER AND
BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH ULTIMATELY COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 34N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON
TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 63W. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W...AND
FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
24N54W 14N57W TROUGH. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ
ARE FOUND FROM TO 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W
AND 52W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN
46W AND 51W MOST PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SURROUNDING THE 25N58W SURFACE LOW CENTER
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 24N54W 14N57W TROUGH.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE JUST FINISHED MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW...AND NOW FINDS
ITSELF IN MORE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 17N79W TO 24N77W BEYOND 32N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...
IS IN HAITI AND ITS WESTERN COASTAL AREAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 7N22W 8N31W 7N40W 11N48W 12N54W 17N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A CURVED BAND WITHIN
20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N16W 8N18W 11N18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH 30N83W
TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF 1001 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 27N86W...TO 23N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N94W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 25N100W 26N105W 30N108W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF 94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH CURRENTLY IS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...ALL OF HONDURAS...
CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THIS PART OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FINDS ITSELF AT THE TAIL END OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER NOW IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND
IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WITH THE 17N79W 32N78W RIDGE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W. THIS FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH RUNS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 10N TO 34N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NOT COUNTING THE PART FOR
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N58W...
A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N20W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER THROUGH 30N21W TO 25N25W
TO 17N30W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPIRALING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.

$$
MT


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