[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 525 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N57W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW IS
COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N54W AND IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE
SURFACE CENTER FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-58W. DEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN
45W-52W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE PAST 24 HRS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY W/NW OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS REMAINING FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR
BERMUDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS NOTED AT 11N31W IN METEOSAT-8
IMAGERY WITH A MODEST-SIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60
NM RADIUS.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 19N MOVING W
10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES...MAKING ITS EXACT
POSITION SOMEWHAT HARD TO FIND. HOWEVER...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-75W.  NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
69W-71W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 8N20W 8N30W 7N40W 12N48W
12N55W 17N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG
30N84W 24N90W 19N96W.  THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 21N99W
27N101W.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO BUT THE WATERS OF THE NW GULF ARE MODIFYING THE AIR
MASS...SO THE FRONT IS MOSTLY MARKED BY INCREASED WINDS TO 20
KT. THE FRONT HAS MERGED WITH A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 27N86W.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE E ACROSS FLORIDA SAT
AND SUN. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W FLORIDA TO W CUBA
ALONG 27N82W 21N85W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE E GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN AT THE MOMENT AND IS SPARKING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND HONDURAS.
THIS AREA ALSO APPEARS TO BE PARTLY FORCED BY AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE AT THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET THAT
EXTENDS NWD INTO FLORIDA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-23N BETWEEN 76W-84W.  FARTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
S OF HISPANIOLA AN D OVER NW VENEZUELA.  SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 59W-61W DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP MOISTURE FLOW DUE TO A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER MOST OF FLORIDA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE W ATLC WATERS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS W OF 73W.  AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW ALONG 54W
IS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 25N57W. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON THIS FEATURE. FARTHER E...A
GALE CENTER IS LOCATED SE OF THE AZORES AND HAS BEEN SHEDDING
SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE S...ONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM
MADEIRA ISLAND TO THE WESTERNMOST CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N26W...THE
OTHER FARTHER W ALONG 32N20W 28N27W 30N35W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE N OF 30N BETWEEN 15W-25W AND CONTINUED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE LOW MEANDERS TO THE N. A DIFFUSE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-20N E OF 45W BUT THE
CONCENTRATION IS NOT AS THICK AS PLUMES HAVE BEEN EARLIER IN THE
SEASON.

$$
FORMOSA


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