[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 060930
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY... LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... INCLUDING FROM NOAA
BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... INDICATE THAT AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA... WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY... IF NECESSARY.  EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT OCCUR... THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA... SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE... AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

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