[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 82.6W OR NEAR
WAYCROSS GEORGIA AT 06/0600 UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR
MORE DETAILS. T.S. TAMMY MADE LANDFALL EARLIER AROUND 05/2300
UTC NEAR MAYPORT FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED MOSTLY N AND E OF
THE CENTER AND MAINLY OVER THE ATLC WATERS. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ON A NW TRACK.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 30.5N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM OF A LINE
31.5N77.5W INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND N GEORGIA TO 34N84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROADER FROM
27N-34.5N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA...
GEORGIA...AND TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA.

BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
SE GULF WITH A 1005 MB LOW ANALYZED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N86W AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER W CUBA
SPREADING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 40W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED JUST S OF 15N. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN
36W-43W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE ON INFRARED SATELLITE WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 56W
AND THE EASTERN MOST LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N27W 9N38W 7N49W 12N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE S GULF IS GIVING WAY TO A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE N GULF ALONG
THE COAST OF FLORIDA OVER PENSACOLA NEAR 30N87W SW INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS
DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR S OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF 87W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS W CUBA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND S FLORIDA S OF
27N E OF 84W. TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER S MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS
T.D. STAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N W OF 91W
INTO S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N W OF 82W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 18N MOVING ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA TO OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 75W-83W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER HIGH N OF
CUBA IN THE BAHAMAS IS EXTENDING A RIDGE SW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W PRODUCING
AN SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W SW TO 14N72W
AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE S CARIBBEAN RATHER
CLOUD/SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM TAMMY MADE LANDFALL EARLIER IT REMAINS A
PROMINENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W N
TO BEYOND 32N71W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. TAMMY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC...MOVING INTO THE W
ATLC...IS N OF 15N FROM 45W-66W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR
22N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE UPPER LOW
FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 47W-55W. A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 23N46W DRIFTING SLOWLY W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
OFF AFRICA NEAR 22N17W SW ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR
10N35W AND DOMINATES THE E ATLC. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF
THE E ATLC AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200
NM OF LINE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N55W E OF THE SURFACE
LOW ALONG 22N43W TO 28N29W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS IN THE E
ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N BETWEEN 22W-42W.

$$
WALLACE


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