[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY AT 06/0000 UTC IS NEAR 30.5N
81.6W VERY NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.  T.S. TAMMY IS MOVING
NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. TAMMY
IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC UNITED STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN TAMMY'S NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FLORIDA
COAST FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 74W-77W.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STAN...EXTENDS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS NOT
DEVELOPED YET AND THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS...AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO... ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A 1005 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W HAS DEVELOPED
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAIN.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO...W CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-24N
BETWEEN 79W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-13N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N38W 7N40W 12N60W.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS COME OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-19W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
27W-30W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 34W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LINGERING BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 92W-99W.  CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO AND W CUBA S OF 24N BETWEEN 79W-85W.  FINALLY AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS JUST DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA W OF T.S.TAMMY FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...NAMELY THE NW GULF...HAS FAIR SKIES
WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO MOVE N
TO THE NE GULF NEAR FLORIDA WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITHIN
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN ARE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E
CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 69W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
17N74W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W ALSO
PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  ALSO EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MORE
CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. TAMMY IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW ATLANTIC.  SEE
ABOVE.  A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
23N45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 42W-52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
21N-26N BETWEEN 32W-38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N50W.  A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER W
AFRICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 15N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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