[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Oct 5 15:49:08 CDT 2005
WTNT41 KNHC 052048
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT. THE CREW MADE VISUAL
ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE
COULD BE A SHADE LOW. SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM
LANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.
THE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.
TAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.1N 81.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 31.4N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.2N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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