[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN AT 04/2100 UTC IS INLAND NEAR
17.8N 95.6W OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING SOUTHWEST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE SOME REGENERATION
IS POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES LIKELY.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 94W-100W.

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCOMPANIES A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N79W ABOUT 64 NM
SOUTH OF THE BIMINI ISLANDS.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNORGANIZED.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES
OR WARNINGS.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 27W-34W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS MOVING THROUGH
GUATEMALA ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT
IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED
SOLELY TO THIS WAVE AS OPPOSED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND
AND EAST OF TROPICAL STORM STAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N20W 9N45W 13N55W 10N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 47W-53W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. STAN IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING CONVECTION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF 22N.  THE 1006 MB LOW
OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH 20-25 KT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER MEXICO NEAR T.S. STAN AT
22N100W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR NW GULF
AND TEXAS COAST WHERE FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.  THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 87W-92W.  THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
63W-67W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM STAN
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS MAKING THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE
EAST.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING CONVECTION N OF 23N AND W
OF 66W.  THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF T.D. NINETEEN IS
NEAR 23N42W MOVING WEST 5 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 40W-44W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N49W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-40W.  OVER W AFRICA AND THE TROPICS A RIDGE AXIS IS
ALONG 15N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net