[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 040626
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR STAN.  THE TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER
OF STAN TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE STAN WILL REACH THE
COAST EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
ALSO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... REQUIRING AN EXTENSION OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING EASTWARD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY FALLING CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FOR POINTS OFFSHORE OR
NEAR THE COAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0600Z 19.3N  94.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.0N  94.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.9N  94.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 18.7N  95.2W    90 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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