[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031832
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN AT 03/1800 UTC IS NEAR 20.3N
92.3W OR ABOUT 285 NM/535 KM EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
230 NM/430 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF STAN. THE CLOUD TOPS REACH 53000 FEET AT A
TEMPERATURE OF -85C IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA'S GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM 18N93W TO 21N90W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM STAN'S
CENTER FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 27N82W 26N90W
24N98W. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE DRY AIR. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF
THE DRY AIR WEST OF 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...NOW ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS MOVING THROUGH
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EASTERN NICARAGUA AND MOST OF HONDURAS WITH NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS.
CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING AND ON TOP OF EL SALVADOR...SOUTHWESTERN
HONDURAS...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC FROM T.S. STAN'S OUTFLOW...
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF 17N WEST OF 76W OVER THE OPEN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS NOW
SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...AND THEY MAY BE REACHING THE
COASTS AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 5N30W 13N46W 12N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND
60W. MUCH OF THIS SAME AREA HAS SEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N10W 4N17W 5N28W 8N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM STAN IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
IT IS FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
24 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY REACH LANDFALL IN 48 HOURS OVERALL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF
16N REACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS EAST OF THERE...AND
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM STAN COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 73W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
TROUGH NOW IS CONFINED ONLY TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...HAVING BECOME
SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN PART WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TIED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FORMERLY NEAR
22N58W MORE OR LESS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 21N TO 30N DRIFTING WEST. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W. HIGHER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 25N70W LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...
SENDING THE FLOW SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N45W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 27N52W TO
20N58W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 11N TO 17N.
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING AWAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.
THE 1015 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF T.D. NINETEEN IS NEAR 22N40W
MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORM HAS
DISSIPATED IMMEDIATELY AROUND THIS LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM T.D. NINETEEN REMNANT LOW CENTER TO 26N40W AND 32N32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING SHEARED AND OTHER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN
25W AND 40W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWS UP IN A GENERAL SENSE IN
THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SOUTH OF 32N EAST OF 50W. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE ALONG 32N31W
16N34W...AND A TROUGH FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 23N18W.

$$
MT


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