[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
03/0300 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N
90.3W OR ABOUT 45 NM SW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR
MORE DETAILS. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. STAN REMAINS WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW A DEPRESSION.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER STAN AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED
WITH THE WARM WATERS IN THE GULF...STAN IS FORECASTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STROM. BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA FROM S OF 24N TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 85W-94W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
24W/25W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED NEAR 10N. AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-29W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N36W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT.
LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS OBSERVED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL
TO THE E DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
17N33W-23N37W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS UNDER THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. STAN. ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS RELATED TO STAN AND NOT TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE ITSELF.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N26W 12N45W 8N60W. SCATTERED
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 9W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE AXIS NEAR 10N55W
TO 16N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT IN THE GULF IS T.D. STAN AND ITS
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR STAN AND
DOMINATES THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM
OVER N MEXICO EXTENDS NE TO OVER TEXAS WITH NE FLOW IN THE NW
GULF DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE ATLC COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES AND THE N GULF
GIVING MAJORITY OF THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH STAN IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN N TO
NE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA W OF 74W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
SITUATED OVER JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 76W-81W. ELONGATED
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN STRETCHING FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS SW TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS
IS GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN DRY WEATHER. AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO IS GIVING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH STAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W
AND THE UPPER HIGH N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N64W HAS A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NNW TO BEYOND 32N68W. THIS IS INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N73W TO 21N69W AND COVERING THE AREA
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W NW ALONG 23N68W TO 28N72W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 35W-60W
AND AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 29N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 23N40W NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N34W. TO THE S OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N47W AND COVERS THE
AREA S OF 18N FROM 35W-55W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N21W TO BEYOND
32N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TWO
AREAS OVER THE E ATLC...FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 41W-47W AND N OF
29N FROM 29W-35W.

$$
WALLACE


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