[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN AT 02/2100 UTC IS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20.7N 89.4W OR ABOUT 50 NM/85 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT.  STAN IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ONCE IN
THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...WITH
WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT.
PRESENTLY...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 84W-91W.  OUTER FEEDER BANDS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER W
CUBA...JAMAICA... AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN
76W-81W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 83W-91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A LINE
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 24W-27W MOVING W.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N36W MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE OUTFLOW OF T.S. STAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W
CUBA... JAMAICA... AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN
76W-81W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 4N25W 11N40W 12N50W 8N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM STAN IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FORECAST TO
RE-EMERGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.
IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TRAVERSE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE 20-25 KT
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM STAN AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W ARE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE CARIBBEAN.  IN ADDITION
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-71W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-75W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N87W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W
OF 70W.  A TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N68W 21N68W
17N64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 66W-70W...AND FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
60W-65W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 31N34W 24N39W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 30W-33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A NARROW TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-75W.  A NARROW RIDGE IS FURTHER EAST...N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-70W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N50W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
S OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER W AFRICA NEAR 13N10W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THIS
CENTER TO 13N35W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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