[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 021423
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WELL
TO THE WEST OF DECAYING CONVECTION.  WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR...THERE SEEMS
LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER...AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY UNLESS AN UNEXPECTED REGENERATION OCCURS.

NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WITH THE LOW LAYER
FLOW...AT 315/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT
LOW DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GFS HAD BEEN ALONE IN
FORECASTING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF A DECAYING SYSTEM AND AT
THIS POINT APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN IT RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 17.0N  35.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  38.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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