[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 011452
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

CORRECTED AWIP BIN NUMBER FROM 4 TO 5

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT TUE OCT  4 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.8N  88.8W      41  X  X  X 41   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  3  3
21.7N  90.7W      12 17  X  1 30   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  4  4
22.5N  92.5W       X 20  3  1 24   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  6  6
MUAN 219N 850W     5  1  X  1  7   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  7  7
MMCZ 205N 869W    58  X  X  X 58   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  1  8  9
MZBZ 175N 883W     X  X  1  1  2   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  1  8  9
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  3 10 13   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  3 10 13
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  3  9 12   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  3  3
MMTX 210N 974W     X  X  2  9 11   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  1  5  6
MMVR 192N 961W     X  X  1  7  8   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  2  7  9
MMFR 185N 926W     X  2  3  3  8   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  2  8 10
MMMD 210N 897W    32  2  X  X 34   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  3  9 12
BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  9  7 16
NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM SUN TO  7PM SUN
C FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
D FROM  7AM MON TO  7AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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