[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 302321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR
29.8N 54.2W OR ABOUT 650 MILES...1045 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1650 MILES...2660 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.  EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTH AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  EPSILON HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  SHEAR HAS LESSENED AND THE STORM IS OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AN EYE FEATURE IS NOTED.  A RING OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 7N50W 8N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
33W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 20N88W.  LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION
DELINEATES THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR
32N90W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...W OF THE FRONT.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 94W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...NAMELY
THE TEXAS COAST AND MEXICAN COAST HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF
NICARAGUA AT 14N82W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF.  EXPECT
...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS...AND E
CUBA IN 24 HOURS.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT W AND CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NO
CONVECTION.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE SEA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED TRADEWIND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC AT 32N75W AND EXTENDS S TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.  LOW CLOUDS WITH NO
CONVECTION DELINEATES THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT
34N69W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. T.S.
EPSILON IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29.8N 54.2W...SEE
ABOVE.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 5W-40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 65W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N54W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-65W.  T.S. EPSILON IS EMBEDDED
UNDER THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND IS ABLE TO
SURVIVE.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT EPSILON IS A SHALLOW STORM AND IS
PRODUCING A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS NOT DISCERNIBLE
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  FURTHER E... A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N34W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS N TO 32N29W.

$$
FORMOSA



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