[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 30/1500 UTC IS NEAR
30.7N 53.9W OR ABOUT 565 NM/1050 KM EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT
1400 NM/2590 KM WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EPSILON IS MOVING
WEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CENTER OF
EPSILON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 NM/350 KM
FROM THE CENTER. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA DIRECTLY. EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND ABOUT
75 PERCENT OF THE CENTER. THE GENERAL SENSE OF THE FORECAST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE WEST...
SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD SPEED AND/OR STALL...AND THEN BE SHOT TO
THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AS TROUGH APPROACHES IT FROM THE
WEST. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...AND STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE...AFTER 72 HOURS. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR
IS MIXING ITSELF AROUND THE CENTER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE CENTER OF EPSILON
HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 34N57W...NORTHWEST OF EPSILON.
A WARM FRONT IS ABOUT 750 TO 800 NM NORTHEAST OF EPSILON.
EPSILON FINDS ITSELF ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY BURIED
IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND EPSILON COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 21N TO 36N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SEEN
ALONG 26N57W 20N59W 12N65W RUNNING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SOLID AREA OF DRY AIR IS
WITHIN 250 TO 600 NM TO THE WEST OF EPSILON. THIS DRY AIR IS
FOUND NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W...AND SOUTH OF EPSILON
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 67W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 6N30W 6N40W 8N53W 8N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 12W
AND 16W...AND FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE 31N79W JUST EAST OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC...IN A RIDGE...EAST OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
NOW IS PASSING THROUGH 32N77W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO
24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N81W. THE FRONT BREAKS
OFF AT THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS TO 24N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS FRONT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N93W. A LITTLE BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE GULF WATERS...GOING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
17N103W...CROSSING MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THEN ENTERING THE
GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 70W. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AROUND T.S. EPSILON REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
12N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SOME BITS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN
WATERS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST
OF T.S. EPSILON...GOING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
33N68W TO 29N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC-TO-GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...IS BEING SQUEEZED BY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND T.S. EPSILON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AROUND T.S. EPSILON...
SOUTH OF 30N EAST OF 40W TO AFRICA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW
SURROUNDS THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW CENTER OF DELTA IS FORCING
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA.

$$
MT


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