[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 52.5W OR ABOUT 630
NM E OF BERMUDA AT 30/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N AND BETWEEN
52W-54W. AN OUTER BAND IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 53W-55W.
EPSILON IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N20W 4N39W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-2N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF ALONG 29N81W 24N84W...THEN
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N84W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FOUND NORTH OF 29N. THE MIAMI
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A SMALL AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
18N-19N BETWEEN 91W-93W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER E OKLAHOMA NEAR
35N95W PRODUCING 15-20 KT N TO NE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
W BAHAMAS AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE S BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 17N-21N AND BETWEEN 84W-86W. PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N81W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE MOST OF THE SEA. EXPECT CONVECTION FROM THE COLD FRONT
TO LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND CONTINUED TRADEWIND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTH OF 29 N. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
FAR W ATLC IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N52W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 13N62W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. T.S. EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
THE AMAZON. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N27W N TO BEYOND 32N32W. GENEROUS AMOUNT OF
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 30N BETWEEN 28W-40W AND CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 43W-47W
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM 23N52W TO 16N60W.

$$
GR/PAW




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