[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 31.4N 51.9W OR ABOUT 666
NM E OF BERMUDA AT 30/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-32N AND BETWEEN
51W-53W. AN OUTER BAND IS SW OF THE CENTER WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N19W 4N39W 7N60W AND OVER THE N
SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 6W-11W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 30N81W 23N84W 17N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG 17N95W 22N99W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY 19N-21N AND BETWEEN 88W-88W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER E
TEXAS NEAR 30N97W PRODUCING 15-20 KT N TO NE WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS W BAHAMAS AND W CUBA
DURING THE DAY. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO
AND S TEXAS OVER THE NW GULF CLEARING THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE E TO MISSISSIPPI WITH A RIDGE
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE LOW
CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 19N-21N AND BETWEEN 88W-88W. THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-14N
BETWEEN 81W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS N ACROSS
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N82W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT
CONVECTION FROM THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUED TRADEWIND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF FROM 27N-37N BETWEEN 72W-75W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N53W TO
THE TROPICS NEAR 12N64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. T.S.
EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE AMAZON. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N27W N
TO BEYOND 32N32W. GENEROUS AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 30N
BETWEEN 28W-40W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 43W-47W AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT LIES ALONG 51W.

$$
GR/PAW



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