[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 29/2100 UTC IS NEAR
31.4N 51.2W OR ABOUT 800 MILES...1290 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND
ABOUT 1445 MILES...2325 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS
MOVING WEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 51W-53W.  AN OUTER BAND IS SW
OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N30W 5N50W 8N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 6W-11W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
45W-50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 30N82W 25N85W 18N93W.  A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT
OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ALONG 28N80W 23N84W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE.  A
STATIONARY FRONT WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 18N96W 23N100W.  A 1024 MB
HIGH IS OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N98W PRODUCING 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...W OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF NICARAGUA AT 14N82W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF S OF
27N AND E OF 85W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE
E TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN
86W-89W.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SEA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF NICARAGUA NEAR
14N82W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION
FROM THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED TRADEWIND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.
T.S. EPSILON IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W...SEE
ABOVE.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
22N47W 15N50W 12N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 45W-50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 43W-46W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING IS W OF 65W. TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W AND 26N48W. THE TWO CYCLONIC FLOWS
ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-65W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E
OF 40W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 26W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net