[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 29/1500 UTC IS NEAR
31.6N 50.4W OR ABOUT 735 NM/1360 KM EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT
1210 NM/2245 KM WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EPSILON IS MOVING
WEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB.
EPSILON IS MOVING WEST 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. EPSILON WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE 26TH OF
THIS SEASON...AT 29/1500 UTC. ENOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN ORDER TO BE ABLE CLASSIFY THIS
LOW CENTER AS A TROPICAL STORM NOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY...
OBSERVATIONS...AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THIS FACT. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE MUCH FARTHER AWAY FROM EPSILON TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. WHAT IS NOW
T.S. EPSILON HAD BEEN A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEFORE
ITS CURRENT TRANSFORMATION. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTER. THE TROUGH NOW IS ALONG 22N48W
15N54W 12N62W IN THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N44W
14N47W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N8W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 6N50W 8N58W 8N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...AND FROM
2N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
TROUGH COVERS ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE COLD FRONT BREAKS OFF THERE...AND THE BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY IN MEXICO FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS TO
23N100W. A SQUALL LINE IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...KICKING UP
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND
86W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS. IT IS
EASILY POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION STILL IS FALLING OVER THAT
AREA...FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 78W/80W FROM 20N NORTHWARD. THIS POSITION COVERS CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND
JUST EAST OF MOST OF THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE RUNS FROM A CENTER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...ACROSS CUBA BEYOND 32N78W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE U.S.A. COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ABOUNDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SOME CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 82W AND THE COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 73W AND 82W...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W...AND
FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND
72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF T.S. EPSILON...PASSING
THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 85W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE U.S.A.-TO-GULF
OF MEXICO TROUGH...SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 70W...ORIGINATING FROM THE FLOW AROUND WHAT IS NOW
T.S. EPSILON WHICH EARLIER WAS JUST A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTER
SIX HOURS AGO. THIS LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE AROUND T.S. EPSILON...SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 40W TO
AFRICA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE REMNANT SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF DELTA...WHICH HAS MOVED IN NORTHERN MOROCCO.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N29W TO 20N26W AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT

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