[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 994 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W DRIFTING SW.
ISOBARIC PACKING IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE CENTER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST
OR SOUTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N22W 3N34W 7N52W 9N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 10W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 23W-35W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE U.S. FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO THE E COAST INCLUDING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS GEORGIA/ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO NEAR 30N86W SW ALONG 23N93W CONTINUING S OVER S MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SQUALL LINE REMAINS E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 23N87W INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA TO NEAR
30N82W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO AND S
TEXAS OVER THEW W GULF CLEARING THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER E TEXAS INTO THE
FAR W GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER
FLORIDA AND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF INTO THE DAY ON WED
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE GULF WITH HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING OVER THE S GULF THROUGH THE WEEK EXTENDING OVER
THE W GULF WITH RETURN FLOW BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FORM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N80W N ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
COVERED BY THE S PORTION OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN
WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N W
OF 80W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES
EASTWARD WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W N ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N75W PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BAHAMAS W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC SW THROUGH 32N70W OVER THE BAHAMAS TO
23N77W COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEAR 12N BETWEEN
44W-71W. THE 994 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS COLLOCATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW NEAR 30N50W/31N49W RESPECTIVELY AND A SECOND UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE
LOW ALONG 21N50W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 21N FROM 46W-54W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N25W N TO 24N22W.
GENEROUS AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-34N BETWEEN 34W-46W
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N31W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 28N E OF 30W. THE 992 MB SURFACE
LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL STORM DELTA...IS NE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N12W MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO INLAND OVER
MOROCCO.

$$
WALLACE



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