[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 996 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N48W. ISOBARIC
PACKING IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR
SOUTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N28W 6N37W 5N54W 8N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 26W-31W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
9W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE U.S. FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO THE E COAST INCLUDING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS ALABAMA TO NEAR 30N88W TO A
DISSIPATING 1005 MB LOW NEAR 23N95W CONTINUING S OVER S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SE GEORGIA NEAR 30N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF N OF
23N E OF 86W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO
AND S TEXAS OVER THEW W GULF CLEARING THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.
WEAK HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE GULF BY LATE WED BRINGING CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING OVER THE S GULF THROUGH THE WEEK
EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF WITH RETURN FLOW BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FORM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N78W N ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
COVERED BY THE S PORTION OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN
WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF
80W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES EASTWARD WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W N ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N76W PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC SW THROUGH 32N72W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEAR 12N BETWEEN 43W-70W.
THE 996 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N49W WITH THE SURFACE
996 MB LOW NEAR 31N48W...AND A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO
THE S NEAR 25N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ALONG 24N48W TO 14N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE S UPPER
LOW FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 50W-56W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N25W N TO 26N27W.
GENEROUS AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 35W-47W
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N31W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 28N E OF 32W. THE 990 MB SURFACE
LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL STORM DELTA...IS JUST N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N15W MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO INLAND OVER
MOROCCO.

$$
WALLACE


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