[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 997 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N47W.  ISOBARIC
PACKING IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE CENTER.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR
SOUTHWEST.

THE LAST TROPICAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ON T.S. DELTA AT 28/1500
UTC.  THE REMNANTS OF DELTA IS NOW A 988 MB LOW JUST N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 KT.
GALE-TO STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO AND NORTHERN MAURITANIA ON TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 4N30W 6N40W 6N55W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 24N95W AND CONTINUES TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N96W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE FOOT OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
ALONG 20N96W 25N100W.  THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE AND HAS 20-25
KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND IT.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE 10-15 KT FROM THE SOUTH.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 79W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 16N81W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF A
JETSTREAM THAT EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO E TEXAS AND PRODUCE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF...W OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  WINDS ARE EASTERLY E OF 80W...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
W OF 80W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SEA FROM 10N-20N E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 16N81W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
TRADEWIND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1035 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT
46N62W.  RIDGING FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND W OF 60W.  A 997 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N47W...SEE ABOVE.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N45W 21N47W
15N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 43W-49W.
THE REMNANTS OF T.S. DELTA ARE N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS MOVING
QUICKLY TOWARDS AFRICA WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 65W. TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W AND 24N51W. THE TWO
CYCLONIC FLOWS ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-65W.  A RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net