[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 28/0900 UTC IS NEAR 30.2N
23.3W OR ABOUT 345 MILES...560 KM... WNW OF LA PALMA IN THE
CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING ENE 25 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THE WINDS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH WITH 55 KT VECTORS
EVIDENT.  THE STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS TROPICAL WITH
FRONTS APPEARING TO FORM E AND W OF THE CYCLONE AND A COMMA-LIKE
APPEARANCE BECOMING MORE DEFINED.  GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE WILL LIKELY EFFECT THE CANARY ISLANDS LATER TODAY
WITH GALES ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N13W 8N42W 5N52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 9N-12.5N BETWEEN 36W-40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N-6.5N
BETWEEN 22W-28W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 6.5N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AND IS FROM NEAR LAFAYETTE
LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES S OF THE TEXAS BORDER INTO
THE SIERRA MADRES.  A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITHIN 30-45 NM OF
THE FRONT N OF 28.5N WITH A FEW TSTMS OVER LOUISIANA.  A SURGE
IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF E OF 89W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF 28N
BETWEEN THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TO 86W.  MORE CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED N OF 28N BETWEEN APALACHEE BAY AND PENSACOLA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS... ESPECIALLY WITHIN 90 NM
OF 31N86W.  THIS AREA ALSO WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WILL
COVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.  COLD FRONT SHOULD INTERACT
WITH THIS MOISTURE ON TUE LIKELY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF AND THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUE...OVERSPREADING THE FL PENINSULA LATER THAT DAY.  COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY CLEAR THE AREA LATE WED... WITH THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN AT THAT TIME OVER YUCATAN.  IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS... POWERFUL LOW HAS FORMED OVER NE KANSAS..
HEADING SLOWLY NE.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO
MEXICO LEAVING SW WINDS OVER THE GULF.  VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE NOTED N OF A LINE FROM 22N97W IN MEXICO NE TO NEAR
CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HEAVY RAIN HAS LIKELY FALLEN OVER W CUBA FROM A PESKY AREA OF
TSTMS THAT REFUSES TO GO AWAY.  HOWEVER TOPS ARE NOW WARMING AND
RAIN SHOULD LET UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  OTHERWISE ONLY A
FEW TSTMS ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE
FROM 10N82W TO 17N83.5W.  MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S REPORTED AT TIMES.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 15.5N60W TO 14N66W
WITH MOST OF THE DRIER AIR N OF THIS BOUNDARY.  A CONTINUATION
OF PLEASANT WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... EVEN PERHAPS
PENETRATING THE ABC ISLANDS PERHAPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH
DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 70F.  ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.  AT UPPER LEVELS... HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.  THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SMALL RIDGES IN THE NW ATLC AND SE ATLC ARE DWARFED BY A LARGE
COMPLEX TROUGH CONTROLLING THE CENTRAL ATLC.  FAIR WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 65W
UNDER THE WESTERNMOST RIDGE AXIS.  BRISK ELY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
W OF 60W WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  THE MAIN ACTION IS FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-65W WITH A MEAN
AXIS FROM A DEVELOPING 997 MB LOW NEAR 31N47W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W.  SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE
FROM 30.5N49.5W TO BEYOND 33N49W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED
NE OF THE LOW FROM 32N45W TO 30N34W PERHAPS EVEN FORMING
EASTWARD NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION OF DELTA.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH A LARGE HIGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES.
SECOND... SOMEWHAT LARGER UPPER CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N57W WITH
COOL-AIR ALOFT CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 48W-60W NEAR A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM
27N51W TO 28N62W.  WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE
LARGE TROUGH NEAR 29N39W.. PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-30N
BETWEEN 33W-44W.  THIS LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 40W.  HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IS KEEPING THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N QUIETER THAN LAST WEEK
WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS IN THE ITCZ.  DELTA IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD
AND SHOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS POSSIBLY
EVEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY.  SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BE DEPRESSED FAR TO THE S FROM NW MAURITANIA TO 13N41W ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH ANOMALOUS WLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE

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