[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 28/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.3N
26.1W OR ABOUT 475 MILES...765 KM... WEST OF LA PALMA IN THE
CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING ENE 23 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DELTA PULLED A MORNING
SURPRISE YESTERDAY WITH AN EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE
AND MICROWAVE IMAGES... ALMOST BECOMING A HURRICANE.  THE MOST
RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE
BECOMING LESS INTERTWINED WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF CIRRUS ON THE N
SIDE.  THE SYSTEM IS ALSO BECOMING MORE EXTRATROPICAL-LOOKING
WITH LESS SYMMETRY NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON
THE N SIDE FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6.5N11W 10N40W 5N52W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE NW GULF WITH A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS WITHIN 30-45 NM OF THE FRONT... NOW FROM SW LOUISIANA
TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.  A SURGE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 89W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF 28N BETWEEN THE W COAST
OF FLORIDA TO 86W.  THIS AREA WILL COVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
COLD FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE ON TUE LIKELY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF AND
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE...OVERSPREADING THE FL
PENINSULA LATER THAT DAY.  COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY CLEAR THE
AREA LATE WED... WITH THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN AT THAT
TIME OVER YUCATAN.  IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS... POWERFUL LOW HAS
FORMED OVER NE KANSAS.. HEADING SLOWLY NE.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO LEAVING SW WINDS OVER THE GULF.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED N OF A LINE FROM 21.5N97W IN
MEXICO NE TO NEAR TAMPA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 81W FROM A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO... OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9.5N81W.  MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
REPORTED DURING THE DAY IN PUERTO RICO.  A CONTINUATION OF
PLEASANT WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... EVEN PENETRATING
THE ABC ISLANDS PERHAPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH DEWPOINTS LESS
THAN 70F.  ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE IN THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.  AT UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.  THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC... THE ONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NICE DRY WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SMALL RIDGES IN THE NW ATLC AND SE ATLC ARE DWARFED BY A LARGE
COMPLEX TROUGH CONTROLLING THE CENTRAL ATLC.  FAIR WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 65W
UNDER THE WESTERNMOST RIDGE AXIS.  BRISK ELY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
W OF 60W WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  THE MAIN ACTION IS FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-65W WITH A MEAN
AXIS FROM A DEVELOPING 997 MB LOW NEAR 30N46W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH A LARGE HIGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES.
SECOND... SOMEWHAT LARGER UPPER CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N57W
CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN
49W-60W.  WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE LARGE
TROUGH NEAR 27N43W.. PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-29N
BETWEEN 37W-44W.  THIS LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 40W.  ANOMALOUS WLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N QUIETER
THAN LAST WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS IN THE ITCZ.  DELTA IS
MOVING QUICKLY EWD AND SHOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS POSSIBLY EVEN MADEIRA ISLAND LATER TODAY.

$$
BLAKE

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