[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 27/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N
28.5W OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1040 KM... WEST OF LA PALMA IN THE
CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING NORTHEAST 23 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RECENTLY DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED DURING ITS ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...TO RESUME TOMORROW AS DELTA LOSES
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  WESTERLY SHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
SHOWS THAT DELTA WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY DUE
TO THE EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF DELTA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N30W 9N50W 5N55W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW FROM A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE E OF 88W WHILE FAIR SKIES ARE W OF 88W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOVE THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 18N80W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF A JETSTREAM
THAT EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W GULF AND EXTEND FROM
LOUISIANAN TO VERACRUZ MEXICO IN 24 HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MORE MOISTURE TO ADVECT FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  WINDS ARE EASTERLY E OF 80W...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
W OF 80W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER W
CUBA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N80W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA
EXCEPT OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AT 42N63W.  RIDGING FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND W OF 60W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 30N44W 25N45W 18N49W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 40W-44W.  T.S. DELTA IS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS THREATENING WITH EXTRATROPICAL
GALE FORCE WINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 65W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-65W.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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