[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR
27.7N 30.8W OR ABOUT 690 NM/1280 KM  WEST OF LA PALMA IN
THE CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING NORTHEAST 23 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DELTA HAS STRENGTHENED AS DURING ITS ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AS DELTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME BY TOMORROW AS DELTA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD RESUME BY
TOMORROW AT THE LATEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THAT
DELTA WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER FROM 29N
TO 32N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. A BIGGER CLOUD SHIELD COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 26N TO 36N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DELTA WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N44W 14N39W 19N30W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N38W
23N32W 25N27W 26N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE IN THIS CLOUDINESS
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...BUT HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 5N20W 5N30W 5N44W 3N50W 3N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 2.5N
BETWEEN 4W AND 6W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH CLOUD TOPS
EXPERIENCING SHEARING HIGH LEVEL SHEARING WINDS...WITHIN 30 TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N20W 3N14W 2N6W AND 2N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N6W 4N14W
5N22W 6N29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS. THE FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF IS RELATED
TO THE FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE TROUGH FROM THIS OKLAHOMA LOW CENTER STRETCHES
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE ENERGY
FOR THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IN 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS IS RELATED TO
A CARIBBEAN SEA HIGH CENTER OVER THE WATERS IN BETWEEN
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS NOT ANALYZED
AT 27/1200 UTC...HAVING BEEN DROPPED IN EARLIER ANALYSES. THE
27/1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A THIN LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS...
30 TO 60 NM WIDE...MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
16N106W TO 20N100W 26N90W TO 31N80W. THE NORTHERN END OF
A WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL SURFACE TROUGH REACHES ALONG 23N86W
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD BEYOND 20N86.5W. WEAK SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...ENTERING A BIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY AT 27/1500 UTC WHEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH
DID NOT APPEAR IN THE ISOBARIC FIELD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE AREA WEST OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W RELATED TO THE
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 8N57W
AND 10N48W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING
TOWARD THE BASE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH COVER THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA HIGH
CENTER...OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 33N77W AND BEYOND. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 20N60W
30N70W. ONE ATLANTIC TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 32N68W
TO 21N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 34N56W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 27N59W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOME CLUSTERS IN THE AREA FROM 25N TO
36N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 19N46W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 31N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW TO
THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE GOES UNTIL AT LEAST 36W/37W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N45W 26N45W 17N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOME CLUSTERS IN THE AREA FROM 17N TO
26N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W. T.S. DELTA STILL IS IN THE AREA NEAR
27.7N 30.8W AT 27/1500 UTC. FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
24 HOURS. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
EUROPE AND AFRICA NORTHEAST OF DELTA...AND
NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 20W.

$$
MT


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