[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 27/0300 UTC IS NEAR 24.2N
34.6W OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1695 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING ENE 19 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE CENTER OF DELTA IS
EXPOSED WITH TSTMS PULSING ON THE NE SIDE.  IN FACT SOME OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION OF THE STORM'S LIFETIME IS OCCURRING NOW WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE
QUADRANT.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLOWLY IN ADDITION TO
GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS... WHICH SHOULD START THE EXTRATROPICAL
PROCESS LATER TODAY.  STRONG WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE APPEAR
POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS STARTING EARLY MON WITH
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF DELTA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N40W 4N51W.    ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-20W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
17W-23W.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF 6N34.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK WARM FRONT IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST INTO SE TEXAS NEAR
GALVESTON.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 89W-92W
INTO SE LOUISIANA AND S MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SE TEXAS.  OTHERWISE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM SE
MEXICO NEAR 20N96W NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE JET.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24.5N BETWEEN
81.5W-87W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN.  THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD AND COULD ADD TO THE CLOUDINESS OVER SW FLORIDA LATER
TODAY AND SOME SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/N FLORIDA ON MON.  A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON MON...THOUGH
LIMITED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE WESTERN GULF
MOSTLY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W MOVING NW.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  RAIN IS EXPECTED
FOR W CUBA OVERNIGHT... POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE NE TIP OF
YUCATAN LATER TODAY.   FURTHER E...15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED
E OF 78W ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13.5N-15N BETWEEN
68W-75W.  DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN.. WITH
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70F OBSERVED AT ST MAARTEN EARLIER TODAY.  A
CONTINUATION OF NLY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
DEWPOINTS PERHAPS INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FILTERING IN BY EARLY WEEK
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.    IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A HIGH
CENTER NEAR JAMAICA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRACTICALLY
EVERYWHERE SAVE NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN.  SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY
MID-WEEK AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE INCREASES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA N OF
20N W OF 40W WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS N OF 28N W OF BERMUDA.
OTHER HIGH CLOUDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-60W ARE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE AREA NEAR 33N58W.  THIS UPPER
LOW SHOULD MOVE SEWARD AND INTERACT WITH A WEAK TROUGH LOCATED
NW OF DELTA... AND FORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  COMPUTER
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AROUND TUE... SOME TRANSITION TO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MIGHT OCCUR OVER MARGINAL SST'S.  IF THIS
OCCURS THE NAME WOULD BE EPSILON.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY ACQUIRE SOME
SUBTROPICAL (OR EVEN TROPICAL) CHARACTERISTICS.  BLOCKING AT
HIGH LATITUDES SEEMS TO FAVOR ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE EFFORT
THOUGH.  ELSEWHERE...TROUGH IS SWINGING THRU THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 24N47W TO 17N54W WITH SOME COLD-AIR INSTABILITY NEAR THE
TROUGH PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF 23N47.5W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N38W ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MEAN
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM ITS EASTERN EXTENT
SHEARING DELTA RANGING WESTWARD TO ABOUT 65W.  UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NNE INTO
WESTERN SAHARA.  LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS IS N OF 22N
BETWEEN DELTA AND AFRICA FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S TSTMS AND
UPPER LIFT FROM THE TROUGH.   OTHERWISE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS S OF 20N W OF
30W.

$$
BLAKE

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