[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR 23.2N
36.7W OR ABOUT 1170 MILES...1885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONSISTS OF
AN EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN A DAY OR SO. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTER AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  PRESENTLY...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N20W 10N40W 6N55W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS
ALONG 26N80W 29N90W 29N94W.  THERE IS NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS
FRONT EXCEPT NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED.  TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
N OF THE FRONT.  S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 90W WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SW AT 20-25 KT WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SE FLOW.  A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ
TO LOUISIANA AND N FLORIDA.  EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W
DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
FROM A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING E OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W TO W CUBA
NEAR 22N84W MOVING W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-84W. FURTHER E...15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED E OF 78W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA TO S
FLORIDA ALONG 32N66W 27N75W 26N80W.  A FAINT CLOUD LINE WITH NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED. T.S. DELTA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE
E CENTRAL ATLC...SEE ABOVE.  FURTHER E...OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 23W-27W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
40W-60W.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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