[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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Sat Nov 26 14:35:21 CST 2005
WTNT43 KNHC 262034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005
DELTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO A CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND THE CENTER HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A
DAY OR SO AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DELTA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES
AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEN...A TURN TO THE
EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 23.2N 36.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 35.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 31.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.5N 26.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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