[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261821
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA AT 26/1200 UTC NEAR
22.4N 38.1W OR ABOUT 1100 NM/2035 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
DELTA IS MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED
AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM RADIUS OF 23N36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN A CURVED BAND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N34W
29N28W 31N31W 32N37W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURS ALONG
THE LINE 15N30W 22N27W 27N25W...SEPARATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF T.S. DELTA
FOR THE LAST WEEK WHICH IS TO THE WEST OF THE 15N30W 27N25W
LINE. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 10N TO 34N BETWEEN 27W AND 41W. DELTA SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER AN EVEN STRONGER WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N10W 7N20W 8N40W 8N46W 7N50W 6N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N6W 4N14W
5N22W 6N29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 26N80W
25N90W 19N96W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD...BEING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS OVER
MEXICO YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTURE STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 16N102W...CROSSES MEXICO WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND STAYS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...STAYING WITHIN 160 TO 200 NM OF LAND.
A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE
TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 26.5N...BECOMING STATIONARY AND
CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N90W AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
NEAR 29N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF
29N85W 27N92W 21N97W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND INLAND FROM EAST OF 98W RELATED
TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
RIGHT ON TOP OF JAMAICA. THIS HIGH CENTER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH
IS ALONG 20N79W 16N81W 11N81.5W. THIS TROUGH REALLY IS NOT EVEN
THAT NOTICEABLE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. AT LEAST THREE
INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS UP TO AND INCLUDING 26/1200 UTC. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS NOW ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
75W AND 84W. PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W
IS LIGHT AND APPEARS TO DISSIPATING FOR THE MOST PART. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A BASE NEAR 32N60W AND
NORTHWARD...SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 36N47W TO A SECOND LOW
CENTER NEAR 23N53W TO 18N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE
SECOND LOW CENTER FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. T.S. DELTA STILL IS IN THE
AREA NEAR 22.4N 38.1W AT 26/1500 UTC. FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW
CUTS INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FROM SPAIN SOUTHWARD CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO
AND EASTWARD.

$$
MT

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