[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 39.0W AT 26/0900 UTC
MOVING E AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BETWEEN 30W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 175 NM IN THE E QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N19W 8N30W 7N36W 8N44W 5N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-9N E OF 18W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN INCLUDING THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OF THE UPPER JET EXTENDS ACROSS N MEXICO TO THE PEAK OF
THE RIDGE...THEN DIPS SLIGHTLY S OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF 90 TO 110 KT. UPPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE N GULF WITH THE
JET...BUT OTHERWISE THE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER HEADING S FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF
THE NE U.S. WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING FROM THE W ATLC THEN
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W EXTENDING NW TO ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INCREASING WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GULF LATER TODAY AND HAS DEVELOPED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND AREAS AND ONLY
A CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE SE GULF ON SUN COVERING THE ENTIRE E GULF BY
MON.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WITH A BROAD RIDGING E/W AS WELL AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 70W-83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W JAMAICA
NEAR 19N79W S TO 11N82W. THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS NW ATLC TO THE NE U.S. WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N69W BECOMING STATIONARY
NEAR 28N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N79W THEN NW
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS TO THE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N50W SSW TO N
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. A SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH UPPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABSENT ACROSS THE ATLC W OF 40W GIVING THE AREA CLEAR
SKIES W OF 60W AND SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A SHARPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
THE TROPICS NEAR 13N51W NE TO 33N43W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURRING S OF 20N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 37W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
T.S. DELTA...THAT REACHED ITS PEAK ON THU IS OVER THE E ATLC AND
IS COLLOCATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 30N38W S TO 12N35W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES E
OF THE TROUGH AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-33W BETWEEN 21W-36W INCLUDING THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net