[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 39.8W AT 26/0300 UTC
MOVING S AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
MOSTLY EXPOSED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BETWEEN 27W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE E QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N22W 9N32W 10N42W 5N54W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 22W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 82W TO OVER THE N GULF COAST
STATES INTO THE W ATLC. THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER JET
EXTENDS ACROSS N MEXICO TO THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE...THEN DIPS
SLIGHTLY S OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 100 TO
130 KT OVER THE THE N GULF COAST STATES. UPPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE N GULF WITH THE
JET...BUT OTHERWISE THE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER HEADING S THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE U.S. WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE NW ATLC AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W
EXTENDING NW TO ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS JUST S OF HOUSTON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH
THE RETURN FLOW AND WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY
WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND AREAS AND ONLY
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE SE GULF ON SUN COVERING THE ENTIRE E GULF BY
MON.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WITH A BROAD RIDGING E/W AS WELL AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY TWO SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION/SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITHIN 45 NM OF 17N FROM 68.5W-71.5W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W S TO 11N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS NW ATLC W OVER THE NE U.S. WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO N OF BERMUDA
ENTERING THE AREA AS A STATIONARY THROUGH 32N71W EXTENDING S TO
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W THEN NW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TO THE E
OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W SSW TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W. A
SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH UPPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE W
ATLC...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABSENT GIVING THE AREA CLEAR
SKIES W OF 60W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N55W NE TO 32N47W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING S OF 20N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 47W
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. T.S. DELTA...THAT REACHED ITS PEAK ON THU
IS OVER THE E ATLC AND IS COLLOCATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N39W S TO 12N34W. BROAD
UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES E OF THE TROUGH AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-33W BETWEEN 22W-37W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE




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