[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W OR ABOUT 1290
MILES...2075 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AT 25/2100 UTC MOVING
SW AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB.  SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DELTA HAS WEAKENED IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS.  STRONG NW UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PERSISTS...
TOGETHER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 10N40W 6N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS ALONG
27N80W 29N90W 29N94W.  THERE IS NO CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER N OF THE FRONT.  S OF THE FRONT
WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH FAIR
WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SE FLOW.  A BAND OF MOISTURE IS W OF 93W AND
ALSO N OF 25N.  EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF HONDURAS ALONG 19N79W 13N81W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 76W-81W.
FURTHER E...15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED E OF 78W.   IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA.  EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN PANAMA AND HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 27N77W 27N80W.  A
FAINT CLOUD LINE WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.  FURTHER E... A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N59W TO
PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH.  T.S. DELTA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE E
ATLC...WHILE FURTHER E OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
28W-35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 70W.  A SMALL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  A RIDGE
IS N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.  IN THE TROPICS...WESTERLY FLOW IS
FROM THE EQ-10N BETWEEN 15W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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