[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 38.9W...OR 1160
MILES...1865 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AT 24/2100 UTC
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AROUND DELTA EXTENDS OUTWARD FOR ABOUT 700-800 NM
BUT THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ONLY EXTENDS OUT ABOUT
200 NM. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 37W-41W
NEAR THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 8N25W 5N40W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 36W-38W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE HIGH WITH
PREDOMINATELY 15-20 KT WINDS FROM THE W...N OF 26N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE W GULF WITH MOISTURE N OF
24N AND W OF 86W.  A JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC TO
CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 20N111W 26N100W
28N86W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS S OF 24N.  EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SE
UNITED STATES BUILDS OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA ALONG 20N68W 15N75W 7N80W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  FARTHER E...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG
20N64W 12N68W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
ESPECIALLY N OF 17N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 12N93W.  A TROUGH IS OVER
THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-85W.  ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N60W.
EXPECT THE E CARIBBEAN TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR
SO...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS CNTRL AMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS SHIFTING EWD
AND IS NOW ALONG 72W...STRETCHING S TO THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG A LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS NEWD TO 32N57W WITH A BAND OF BROKEN CIRRUS UP TO 250 NM
TO THE SE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 32N56W 26N60W 20N68W AND IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO 120 NM NE OF THE
BOUNDARY S OF 26N.  A SHARP UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEWD TO 32N48W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURRING ON THE SRN END FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 50W-63W. T.S. DELTA
IS HOLDING STEADY AS A STRONG T.S. OVER THE E/CNTRL ATLC AND IS
COLLOCATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG 38W. BROAD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE LIES E OF THE TROUGH AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-24N
BETWEEN 24W-37W AND IS JUST BRUSHING THE NW CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF DELTA IS PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN W OF THE
CAPE VERDES AS THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS W AND DRIER AIR SURGES
IN FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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