[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 38.8W...OR 995 NM SW
OF THE AZORES...AT 24/1500 UTC MOVING E 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND DELTA EXTENDS OUTWARD
FOR ABOUT 700-800 NM BUT THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION
ONLY EXTENDS OUT ABOUT 200 NM. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
20N-28N BETWEEN 35W-42W IN BANDS WHICH SPREAD AWAY FROM THE
CENTER AND DIE OUT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 4N26W 8N44W 3N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...STRETCHES S TO FLORIDA AND IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO
THE E AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 96W. THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET EXTENDS ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE RIDGE...THEN
DIPS SEWD ACROSS CUBA WITH MAXIMUM 250 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 90 KT.
SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NW
GULF WITH THE JET...BUT OTHERWISE THE SUBSIDENCE BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER HEADING SE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N89W...AND A SECOND IS JUST E OF HAVANA CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND AREAS AND ONLY A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND SAT AS STRONGER RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LIES ROUGHLY ALONG 13N AND IS BEING SQUEEZED
FROM THE N BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
COVERS NW OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA...AS
WELL AS E OF 63W WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN
PANAMA TO 15N75W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 75W-80W SOME
OF WHICH ARE BRUSHING THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE PANAMA
CANAL ZONE. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO
15N66W E OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 20N62W AND IS ALSO SUPPORTING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING AREAS FROM PUERTO RICO EWD TO THE ST.
KITTS/ST. MAARTEN AREA. THE E CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING
TOWARDS CNTRL AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS SHIFTING EWD
AND IS NOW ALONG 74W...STRETCHING S TO THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG A LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS NEWD TO 32N57W WITH A BAND OF BROKEN CIRRUS UP TO 250 NM
TO THE SE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NE TO 26N60W 32N56W AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO 180 NM NE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 26N. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT LIES JUST TO THE W ALONG 32N58W 26N68W
25N75W WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS N OF 25N BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE CNTRL ATLC FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEWD TO 32N48W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING
ON THE SRN END FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 50W-63W. T.S. DELTA IS
STRENGTHENING OVER THE E/CNTRL ATLC AND IS COLLOCATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG 39W/40W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES E
OF THE TROUGH AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN 24W-37W
AND IS JUST BRUSHING THE NW CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF DELTA IS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 20W-28W. IT APPEARS
THAT THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN W OF THE CAPE VERDES AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS W AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
BERG


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