[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 40.3W AT 24/0300 UTC
MOVING SSE AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
E SEMICIRCLE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO LESSEN AS DELTA MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 7N28W 7N38W 5N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 34W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND W CARIBBEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WITH THE MEAN AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N80W TO 16N86W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES INTO THE NW ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...AN EASTERN COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N57W S OVER HISPANIOLA TO
19N71W PULLING UP STATIONARY TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. A
SECOND COLD FRONT...BECOMING THE DOMINATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW ACROSS
CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER CUBA TO 21N85W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP OFF TEXAS COVERING THE ENTIRE
GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W...AND THE W ATLC NW OF
A LINE FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA TO BERMUDA. MODERATE W SURFACE
WINDS COVERS THE GULF...MODERATE/STRONG W WINDS IN THE W
ATLC...AND LIGHT/MODERATE NW TO N WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN.
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLC N OF
25N BETWEEN THE W FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 78W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MB HIGH IS IN THE SW
GULF NEAR 21N93W. THE W COLD FRONTS WILL OVERTAKE THE WEAKER
EASTERN FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUILDING A SURFACE
RIDGE S OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE IN STORE FOR THE GULF UNTIL ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE NW GULF.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 12N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS S TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 14N. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK SPREADING W DURING THE WEEKEND AND COVERING
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W EXTENDS A
RIDGE NNE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N54W COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 46W-63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N53W TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC IN WHICH T.S. DELTA IS EMBEDDED. ALSO EMBEDDED
IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N31W. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S
INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 8N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
30N30W SSW ALONG 20N34W TO 15N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-23N
BETWEEN 20W-40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-36N BETWEEN 19W-26W. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION IS PRODUCING BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N BETWEEN
40W-60W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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