[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DELTA HAS FORMED IN THE E-CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
ABOUT 1150 MILES SW OF THE AZORES.  IT IS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N
40.5W AT 23/2100 UTC MOVING SSE 8 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 982 MB.  PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER AND
INTENSIFIED SINCE YESTERDAY.. IN ADDITION TO COMPLETELY
SEPARATING FROM ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THUS ADVISORIES ON THE
25TH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE YEAR WERE INITIATED... YET ANOTHER
RECORD.  NLY SHEAR IS PREVENTING MUCH ORGANIZATION BUT COULD
SLACKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.. ALLOWING SOME
INTENSIFICATION.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN 130 NM OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 8N38W 5N53W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 14W-21W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-37W...AIDED BY THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E-CENTRAL ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...WEST ATLANTIC... AND W CARIBBEAN
SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS LEFT THE GULF AND HAS
PASSED BERMUDA.. NOW FROM 31N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN
INTO NW CUBA.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ALONG THE FRONT S OF
25N... BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
25N TO NEAR BERMUDA.  THE FIRST COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL
THE NICE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES... NW CARIBBEAN
AND BAHAMAS IS NOW NEAR 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA THEN DEEP INTO THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR NW PANAMA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF
14N BETWEEN 75W-84W NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE A LITTLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSISTING THE CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.  OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA.  HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTS... WITH A 1018 MB CENTER OVER THE SW
GULF NEAR 21N96W.  ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER N
FLORIDA LATE TOMORROW.. THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
FOCUSING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEHIND
THE FRONTS... WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS E OF 77W TO THE
SECONDARY FRONT.  CONVERGENCE LINE HAS FORMED FROM THE SE GULF
NEAR 23N85.5W SSE TO 15N83W WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE LINE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.  MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
OVER S TEXAS TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD... WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SE TEXAS AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE W UNITED STATES.  OTHERWISE A
POWERFUL MID/UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA....WITH AXIS
ROUGHLY FROM THE CAROLINA TO NW CUBA.

REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...
FAIRLY QUIET IN THE E CARIBBEAN.  WEAK TROUGH LIES FROM 12N67W
TO 17N65W...PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
65W-66.5W.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH.. BLOWOFF
FROM TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.  UPPER RIDGE LIES FROM NRN S
AMERICA TO SE NICARAGUA WITH MOSTLY WLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.  VERY DRY AIR IS SITTING OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD
ISLANDS... AND LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY TO THE DRIER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.   SEVERAL DAYS OF WET/CLOUDY WEATHER ARE
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWARD FACING MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF HISPANIOLA
AS MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND NE WINDS COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.  CONTINUED TSTMS ARE LIKELY IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE SW TAIL OF THE FRONT.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA E OF THE
60W TO THE AROUND T.S. DELTA.  THE CIRCULATION FROM DELTA COVERS
A LARGE REGION FROM 30W-50W AND DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE SAME REGION N OF 18N.  REMNANTS OF
A COLD FRONT... NOW A TROUGH... LIE FROM 28N29W 19N33W 16N38W
15N51W.  THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH FROM
16N-25N.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EVEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE CAPE VERDES WITH SATELLITE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY.   MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC... AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE FAIR WEATHER.  LIGHT OR WLY SURFACE
WINDS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-60W... WHICH IS FAIRLY RARE.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE
FAR SE ATLC.. AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION.

$$
BLAKE


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