[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 986 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 27N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES
FROM 34N34W TO 30N30W TO 24N30W 16N40W 14N46W 15N55W. THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACCORDING TO THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 16N TO 35N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. ONE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS NEAR 28N32W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N41W. THE TROUGH
RUNS THROUGH THIS AREA OF THE ATLANTIC TO 19N44W TO 12N46W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...COUNTING THE
DRY AIR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N21W 21N31W 16N40W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY IS FOUND AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WARMER WATER...AND IT COULD
BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 5N26W 7N40W 6N56W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE 986 GALE CENTER
IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. THIS AREA IS JUST NORTH OF
THE ITCZ AND ITS PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 30N
AND EASTWARD TO AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N78W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE U.S.A...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
64W AND 100W. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURGE OF COLDER AIR
TEMPERATURES BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN THIS AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE/NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA TO 14N80W TO
PANAMA NEAR 9N83W. THE PART OF THE FRONT WEST OF 76W HAS BEEN
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE U.S.A./GULF
OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH...CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N70W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N60W
BEYOND 32N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W
AND 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 14N67W 12N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N70W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N60W
BEYOND 32N56W.THE 986 GALE CENTER IS NEAR 27N41W.

$$
MT


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