[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
CENTRAL ATLC 984 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N41W DRIFTING SE.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 34N33W S ALONG 23N32W THEN
W ALONG 15N46W TO 16N58W. STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR WINDS OF
AT LEAST 50 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL...IT COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 38W-42W. HEAVIER CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 5N29W 8N40W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 27W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE E HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES...THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W ACROSS THE S MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. A SECOND COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 994 MB LOW N OF THE REGION NEAR 32N73W
EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR 26N85W
IN THE E GULF. THIS FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT AS THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN DUE TO THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS COVERING THE
ENTIRE GULF AND THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 72W. MODERATE/STRONG NW
TO N SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF AND W ATLC. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 95W AND
IN THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND
32N63W. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF EASTERN MOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC...BUT STALL OUT AND WEAKEN DUE TO
THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES LATER TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE IN STORE FOR THE GULF UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AS A STATIONARY FRONT SW ACROSS E JAMAICA TO
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A LOW LEVEL 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS
OF T.D. GAMMA...IS ANALYZED N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N80W. THIS LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING N OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE SWIRL. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 67W.
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO 17N
FIRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH MAINLY N OF 15N. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
STREAMING SE FROM THE GULF ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W
WITH BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NE FROM OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
SPREADING W DURING THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE N JUST E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N57W COVERING THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 50W-63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W
TO 20N57W WITH A 1013 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N55W. A DEEP
LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC WITH TWO STRONG UPPER LOWS
CENTERED NEAR 27N41W AND 26N34W. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO
THE TROPICS TO NEAR 13N37W. THE 984 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
33N34W ALONG 20N34W THEN W ALONG 15N46W TO 16N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N26N BETWEEN
21W-30W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
LINE FROM 16N39W TO 22N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N FROM 22W-40W. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION IS
PRODUCING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 14N BETWEEN 40W-63W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED JUST S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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