[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
CENTRAL ATLC 982 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N41W DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER
TONIGHT WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
WITH A DISSIPATING COLD AND WARM FRONTS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
33N34W. STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT
WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
IS CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL...IT IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"...
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
175 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N28W 8N40W 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 22W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE E HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES...THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...A 967 MB LOW IS OVER THE STATE OF MAINE WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS
THE S MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN. A SECOND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING WSW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
NEAR 28N85W IN THE NE GULF. THIS FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT AS THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR SWEEPING ACROSS
TEXAS COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF AND W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W.
MODERATE/STRONG NW TO N SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF AND W
ATLC. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF
S OF 25N E OF 95W AND IN THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM 25N 73W TO
BEYOND 32N66W. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO OVER
BERMUDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC...BUT
STALL OUT AND WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
DURING LATER TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ARE IN STORE FOR THE GULF UNTIL ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE CONTINUING SW ACROSS E JAMAICA INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N85W. A LOW LEVEL 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF T.D.
GAMMA...IS ANALYZED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N77W. THIS LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING N OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE SWIRL OF LAST
NIGHT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG
12N. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 70W.
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 67W FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO 17N
FIRING DISSIPATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM RADIUS
OF 15N66W. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STREAMING SE
FROM THE GULF ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH BROKEN/
OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NE FROM OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
SPREADING W OVER THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE N ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N57W COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
50W-63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO 20N58W.
A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC WITH TWO STRONG UPPER
LOWS CENTERED NEAR 29N41W AND 25N35W. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S
INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 13N38W. THE 982 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 33N34W ALONG 18N35W THEN W TO
15N49W AND A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT EXTENDS E TO 31N23W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG 28N28W TO 19N31W GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N38W 23N31W
TO 28N34W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-32N
BETWEEN 21W-28W. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
COUPLED WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION IS PRODUCING BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N BETWEEN
40W-65W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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