[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
CENTRAL ATLC 986 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N40.5W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY.  IN ADDITION THE LOW HAS BEEN SEPARATING FROM
THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NORTH.  A STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE LOW HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"... OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER... STRONGEST IN THE NE QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 4.5N24W 8N38W 5.5N53W.  SCATTERED TSTMS
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF 4.5N28W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND NW CARIBBEAN
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CLEANED OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER
THE GULF AND W ATLC WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
WELL AWAY FROM LAND AS THE AIRMASS WARMS AND MOISTENS OVER
GULF/ATLC WATERS.  COLD FRONT IS NOW ALONG 31N68W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS INTO SE CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
NE NICARAGUA.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM...MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH
A FEW TSTMS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-83W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
HONDURAS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT WESTWARD INTO GUATEMALA AND SE
MEXICO.  FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PLUNGE THRU JAMAICA THEN DEEP
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NLY WINDS APPROACHING
PANAMA... THOUGH BY THEN THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE
MODIFIED.  POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SOUTHWARD TO THE SE GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE COOL
WEATHER.. WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS THE TROUGH FILLS.

REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...
WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 10N79W... HELPING TO SPAWN ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 12.5N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 90 NM OF 11.5N74W UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE.  UPPER RIDGING LIES FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO E NICARAGUA WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE NEARBY TSTMS.  OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN... SMALL TROUGH IS ALONG 66.5W S OF PUERTO RICO
PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
14.5N66W.  BY LATE WED THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR HISPANIOLA
PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAINS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS OF THE ISLAND...DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO.
VERY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO TROPICAL
WAVES IN SIGHT AND NO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA E OF THE
COLD FRONT TO THE DEEP LOW OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N40W.
THIS LOW IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION.
MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC... AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL THE FAIR WEATHER.  COLD FRONT FROM THE E-CENTRAL ATLC
LOW IS NEAR 31N33W TO 24N35W TO 18N48W WITH CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 21N-26N.  OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 24W-30W ALONG A WEAK
TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW.  WLY SURFACE WINDS COVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W... A RARITY.  WEAK
UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE FAR SE ATLC.. AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION.

$$
BLAKE


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