[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RUNS FROM A 985 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 31N40W
TO 14N39W TO 8N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM THE STORM CENTER
TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 31N28W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
27N34W TO 20N40W TO 19N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W...AND AROUND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. THIS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY IS ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 7N30W 9N40W 8N50W 6N56W 7N62W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF AND/OR CLOSE TO THE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ IN THE AREA
OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 100W. INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS AND
VORTICITY CENTERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE FIRST INDIVIDUAL TROUGH HAS CARRIED WITH
IT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE U.S.A. AND
GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST WITH ITS BASE PASSING THROUGH 32N72W
TO 29N77W. THE COLD FRONT NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING
THROUGH 32N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W. A SOMEWHAT
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE GULF
WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE SOUTH
OF 29N85W 27N90W 23N96W...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH TAKING AWAY MOISTURE NORTH
AND WEST OF 32N69W 26N73W 22N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR A THIN
LINE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CUTTING INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SECOND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS SPINNING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
WATERS IN A GENERAL SENSE...AND REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COASTAL PLAINS AT THE BASE OF THIS KENTUCKY LOW CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N71W INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W...TO THE HONDURAS
COAST NEAR 16N85W...AND CUTTING ACROSS GUATEMALA TO 16N92W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N77W 18N80W 15N83W
15N88W 16N92W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N66W TO 20N66W...AND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N65W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...
LEFT OVER AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
65W AND 67W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR THE
ITCZ NEAR 10N78W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ALSO SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N64W INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N65W. THE 985 MB STORM CENTER IS
NEAR 31N40W...ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE STORM CENTER...
ALONG 7N14W 15N19W AND BEYOND 22N13W ALONG THE MOROCCO/MAURITANIA
BORDER.

$$
MT

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