[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N21W 9N39W 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N
BETWEEN 7W-20W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 35W-47.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC W OF 70W...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND
THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM GEORGIA INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A 986 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
NEAR 32N76W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF FROM TEXAS AND MEXICO OVER
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. MODERATE/STRONG NW TO N
SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF E OF 94W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS E
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BY WED BRINGING CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
23N82W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W TO 17N93W IN S
MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 32N74W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO 17N82W. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL...REMNANTS OF T.D.
GAMMA...IS CENTERED ALONG THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
14.5N83W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1009 MB... DRIFTING SSE. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17N67W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WNW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH THE SWIRL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW ABOVE IS DRIFTING SSE...IT IS
BEING CAUGHT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NE
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N84W. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 68W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF
PANAMA BETWEEN 76.5W-81W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO 18N E OF 68W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR 14N66W. THE
NW CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND BE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE U.S.
INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 986 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N76W
ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
BEYOND 32N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 17N82W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS
OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC NEAR
PALM BEACH TO BEYOND 32N65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR EXTENDS
FROM ACROSS FLORIDA N INTO THE UPPER LOW W OF 74W. OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO BEYOND 32N71W ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS A RIDGE N ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND
BERMUDA COVERING THE W ATLC FROM 50W-73W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N58W S TO
22N63W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH
A STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR 32N41W AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N41W. A 989 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E TO A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N36W AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO
19N48W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 28N31W TO 17N41W.
IT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-33N BETWEEN 27W-34W AND N OF 28N FROM 34W-44W AND STORM
CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE LOW. EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION
IS PRODUCING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN 37W-70W.

$$
WALLACE



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