[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N17W 12N43W 10N62W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 7W-16W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 33W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC W OF 77W...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND
THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AT
THE SURFACE...A 994 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH/NORTH
CAROLINA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR
32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH TO FT. MYERS
THROUGH THE SE GULF INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W TO S MEXICO JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N79W ACROSS THE E FLORIDA
COAST NEAR MELBOURNE TO OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA
TO NEAR 21N83W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF
FROM TEXAS AND MEXICO OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF
NEAR 25N88W INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N75W. STRONG NW TO N
SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF E OF 94W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS E
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE W ATLC
AND W CARIBBEAN BEFORE MORNING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
WEAKENING BY WED BRINGING CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
LOW LEVEL SWIRL...REMNANTS OF T.D. GAMMA...IS CENTERED ALONG THE
NE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N83W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1009 MB...
DRIFTING SSE. BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N69W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL AMERICA.
ALTHOUGH THE SWIRL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW ABOVE IS
DRIFTING SSE...IT IS BEING CAUGHT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING NE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N84W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 13N FROM 70W-83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 78W-81W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE U.S.
INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 994 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH/NORTH
CAROLINA AND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR
32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N79W ACROSS THE E FLORIDA COAST NEAR
MELBOURNE TO OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA TO NEAR
21N83W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS
FROM THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC NEAR PALM BEACH TO BEYOND 32N75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA N INTO THE
UPPER LOW W OF 76W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO BEYOND
32N76W ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. UPPER HIGH IN THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE N ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO
BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING THE W ATLC FROM 55W-77W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N61W S TO
22N66W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH
A STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR 32N41W AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N43W. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SE TO A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 30N77W AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO
19N48W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 27N33W TO 18N41W.
IT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-34N BETWEEN 27W-38W AND N OF 30N FROM 38W-44W AND GALE
CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION IS PRODUCING
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF
16N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 22N20W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net