[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 10N30W 11N45W 7N58W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 16W-20W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
30N81W 21N90W 18N94W.  20-30 KT NW-W WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM E OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
COCOA BEACH FLORIDA SW THROUGH FT MYERS TO 23N85W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE GULF N OF 23N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A 110-120 KT JET
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONTERREY MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 250 MB AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST
130 KT OVER FLORIDA BY NIGHT.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
COMPLETELY TRAVERSE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EXTEND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.D. GAMMA IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST
OF E HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. IT IS
DRIFTING SEWD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  THIS SYSTEM IS
MARKED AS A SWIRL OF MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 15N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-79W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE THE ENTIRE
SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 75W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH N WINDS AS
FAR S AS NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE AREA.  A
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  A 994 GALE LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 29N38W TO 26N40W 23N47W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FURTHER E
ALONG 27N33W 20N39W 16N44W.  A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA NEAR 22N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
BETWEEN 55W-80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W...OVER THE GALE LOW.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
S TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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