[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 3N2W 6N12W 8N22W 6N35W 6N45W TO COAST OF
S AMERICA NEXT 5N52W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA ROUGHLY ALONG 9N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 15W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
LOUISIANA/SW MISSISSIPPI AND IS RAPIDLY MOVING E ALONG THE N
GULF COAST. A 110-120 KT JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
MONTERREY MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 250 MB AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 130 KT OVER FLORIDA BY MON
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 29N84W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N90W
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT EXTENDS NE TO A 1006 MB
LOW OVER SE GEORGIA...AND IS MARKED BY A 150 NM WIDE AREA OF
BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SW FLORIDA COAST TO
ACROSS W CUBA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM E OF THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW THROUGH 26N90W TO 23N87W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE TROUGH.
SMALL SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT TO
ABOUT 94W. AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 96W. CLEAR SKIES UNDER DAY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURE ARE NOTED OVER REMAINDER OF GULF W OF COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.D. GAMMA IS LOCATED WITHIN ABOUT
60 NM N OF THE COAST HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH A PRESSURE OF
1010 MB. IT IS DRIFTING SEWD WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE CENTER. THE REST OF THIS
SYSTEM IS MARKED AS A SWIRL OF MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE
CENTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ABSORB
GAMMA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. A NEW FEATURE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A N-S TROUGH ALONG 77W
S OF 15N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE
TROUGH FROM 11N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS OF 12N75W. SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM AND DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN FROM THE E. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA
E OF 83W AND CREATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS CONFINED TO THE
SE CARIBBEAN FROM S OF 15N BETWEEN 62.5W-67W.

ATLANTIC...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE AREA. A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE LIES ALONG 70W AND WILL FORCE THE DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND HAVE A DRAPING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE W ATLC
WATERS MON NIGHT THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA NEWD BY THU MORNING.
FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N46W THROUGH
22N44W TO 18N47W AND IS SUPPORTING A QUICKLY-DEEPENING 986 MB
LOW NEAR 30N41W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THROUGH 29N39W
TO 25N45W TO 24N49.5W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N38W
THROUGH 27N34W TO 23N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT
N OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM
E OF THE TROUGH FROM 22.5N-27N. A JET STREAM BRANCH SW OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP CHANNEL INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE CNTRL ATLC TOWARDS THE NW COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
GR/JA


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